April 2013

Standard Truck Market Trends Summary of Results of JAMA’s Fiscal 2012 Survey

The Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association has released the results of its standard truck market survey conducted in fiscal 2012 (ending March 31, 2013).

This survey is conducted once every two years to monitor shifts in the demand structure for standard trucks in Japan by tracking periods of ownership, purchases, patterns of use, and changes in transport needs, as well as the impact on users of relevant new or revised laws and ordinances. This survey also sought to determine the extent of:
- Awareness of and response to environmental issues;
- Awareness of and potential demand for advanced safety features/equipment; and
- Impacts of the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami and measures adopted or deemed worthy of adoption as a result, including the use of telematics.

Survey results highlighted the following trends:

A sustained decline in standard truck unit ownership (i.e., in the number of units owned per owner) as well as longer periods of ownership, despite a recovery in new vehicle demand from the downturn triggered by the 2008 global financial crisis.
A continued decline in the percentage of freight carriers reporting a deteriorating business climate, with signs of recovery in this category emerging since 2010, and indications that carriers will maintain the current number of units in their fleets.
No significant changes for freight carriers in average truck-loading and deadheading rates, amid an easing of the downward trend in freight volumes.
Difficulties for freight carriers in raising their freight transport charges to customers, prompting their implementation of streamlining measures to cut costs, with current and anticipated driver shortages also a source of concern.
For greater on-road fuel efficiency and reduced CO2 emissions, onboard equipment-based measures are increasingly being adopted, in addition to the promotion of ecodriving. The introduction of more fuel-efficient vehicles was the most often cited anticipated solution, amid a growing use of hybrid models.
Driver sobriety checks prior to vehicle operation are the single most prevalent road accident prevention measure taken by freight carriers. Carriers with large standard-truck fleets continue to equip them with digital tachographs, and the growing use of event data recorders looks set to expand even further.
Decreased freight volumes and altered truck routes/destinations were the greatest issues stemming from the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami (principal problems in the disaster’s immediate aftermath having been fuel shortages and “disrupted information and communications”). Freight carriers expressed interest in the use of hybrid trucks and telematics as disaster-mitigation measures.

[For Reference]

JAMA’s Fiscal 2012 Survey of Standard Truck Market Trends
Survey Implementation Outline and Results

1. Survey Implementation Outline

Survey type	User survey
Survey area	Nationwide
Survey medium	Via postal mail distribution
Survey targets	Freight carriers owning standard trucks for use in their carrier operations (random sampling)	Enterprises owning standard trucks for use in their operations in the construction, manufacturing, wholesaling/retailing, waste treat-　ment and other sectors (random sampling)

Valid responses	832	567
Survey period	Late August to early October 2012

2. Survey Results

2.1 Demand status: Despite a recovery in new vehicle demand, declining standard truck unit ownership and longer periods of ownership continue.

According to a survey by the Japan Automobile Dealers Association, there has been a growth in demand for standard trucks since 2010, when demand was boosted by the application of tax incentives and subsidies for the purchase of eco-friendly (fuel-efficient and low-emission) models. Subsequently, sales rose as a result of reconstruction-related demand in the wake of the double natural disaster of March 11, 2011. Average unit ownership, however, has been in a sustained and gradual decline since 2002.
For freight carriers, average unit ownership of standard trucks was tracked at 10.9 units, the same level as reported in the fiscal 2010 survey.
Also for freight carriers, the average duration of truck ownership was 10.8 years, continuing a trend in longer ownership periods that dates from fiscal 2006.

2.2 Business climate perceptions and ownership projections: With signs of recovery in this category evident since 2010, the percentage of freight carriers reporting a deteriorating business climate continues to decline and current fleet unit numbers are likely to be maintained in the coming years.

Notwithstanding a decline since fiscal 2008 in the percentage of freight carriers reporting a deteriorating business climate, business sentiment remains restrained, with roughly 50% of carriers citing a decline.
The percentage of freight carriers noting declines in unit ownership decreased from 33% in the 2010 survey to 21% in this survey; those stating that unit ownership would remain at current levels over the coming year rose from 48% to 61%; and those projecting no change in current levels of unit ownership over the next five years also rose, from 39% to 54%.

2.3 Status of truck operations: No significant changes in truck-loading and deadheading rates, amid an easing of the downward trend in freight volumes.

For freight carriers, both the average truck-loading rate, at 86.2%, and the deadheading rate, at 34%, remained virtually unchanged from the 2010 survey.
As regards freight volumes, the percentage of respondents reporting 100% capacity rose (to 30%) compared to the 2010 survey level. The number of carrier-hiring customers, meanwhile, continued to decline.

2.4 Issues related to freight transport: Owing to the difficulty of raising freight transport charges, various streamlining measures are being implemented. Driver shortages are a growing concern.

Leading issues for freight carriers were “higher fuel prices” (78%), “difficulties in raising freight transport charges” (39%), and the “advancing age of drivers” (31%).
To compensate for the difficulty in raising transport fees to reflect higher fuel prices, freight carriers are moving to streamline their operations and cut costs by delaying vehicle replacement purchases and optimizing efficiency in vehicle use.
The percentage of freight carriers reporting driver shortages increased from the 2010 level. Projections for the coming five years indicated growing concern over such shortages.

2.5 Awareness of and response to environmental issues: For greater on-road fuel efficiency and reduced CO2 emissions, onboard equipment-based measures are increasingly being adopted, in addition to the promotion of ecodriving. The introduction of more fuel-efficient vehicles was the most often cited anticipated solution, amid a growing use of hybrid models.

Although the most commonly reported response to the 2016 introduction of tighter emissions regulations was the intent to delay new-vehicle replacement purchases as long as possible, there were increased indications of active efforts to purchase models compliant with those regulations.
A large number of freight carriers indicated they were promoting ecodriving practices among their fleet drivers to reduce CO2 emissions through increased fuel efficiency. Freight carriers are generally moving to introduce more fuel-efficient models and equip their trucks with digital tachographs and other fuel efficiency-promoting onboard systems.
Use by freight carriers of the government’s subsidy program for the purchase of eco-friendly vehicles was found to rise in direct proportion to the number of units owned, with 62% of carriers with fleets of 30 or more trucks reporting the use of the new-vehicle purchasing subsidies programs introduced in fiscal 2009 and fiscal 2011.

2.6 Safety measures implementation: For freight carriers, driver sobriety checks prior to vehicle operation constitute the single most prevalent road accident prevention measure. Carriers with large standard-truck fleets continue to equip them with digital tachographs, and the growing use of event data recorders looks set to expand even further.

Significantly stiffer (than previous) penalties for drunk driving in Japan have prompted a steady increase in the percentage (now over 90%) of freight carriers who conduct pre-vehicle-operation driver sobriety checks. Other measures taken, for about 80% of freight carrier respondents, include mandatory face-to-face on-duty reporting for drivers and greater attention paid to driver health.
Driver-support equipment cited as currently in use included back-up monitoring cameras, digital tachographs, and event data recorders. Respondents also reported their intention to use various kinds of safety equipment—including event data recorders as well as rearward-approaching-vehicle warning and collision-mitigation braking systems—in the future.
Freight carriers reported that 20% of their trucks with a ≥5-ton loading capacity and 20% of their trucks with a 1<5-ton loading capacity were equipped with digital tachographs. For carriers with fleets of 30 or more trucks, 70% of their trucks with a ≥5-ton loading capacity were so equipped.
The reason most cited for using digital tachographs was “safe driving monitoring” (71%), followed by “driver activity-based fuel efficiency data monitoring (e.g., accelerator pedal operation monitoring)” (63%) and “task execution data monitoring (distances, start/finish data, etc.)” (50%).

2.7 Impacts from the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami: Decreased freight volumes and altered truck routes/destinations were the greatest issues stemming from the disaster; freight carriers expressed interest in hybrid trucks and telematics as disaster-mitigation measures.

Reduced freight volumes and altered truck routes and destinations were the most significant issues for over 30% of freight carrier respondents (fuel shortages and “disrupted information and communications” having been the most important in the disaster’s immediate aftermath).
Among vehicle types and systems in which interest was expressed by freight carriers for their disaster-mitigation value, the most frequently cited were hybrid trucks (for their fuel efficiency and potential use as emergency power sources) and telematics (for the more efficient information delivery and communication functions they provide).

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